Sharon Smith

The protocol

Observe. Test. Conclude. In that order.

Laboratory work has a sequence, and the sequence is not optional. You observe without deciding what you are looking at. You design a test that could prove you wrong. You conclude only from what the test returned. Applied to a house, it produces a very different transaction than the one most buyers get.

  1. 01

    Observe without concluding

    The first walkthrough is not a decision, and I will not let it become one. Finishes get looked at last, because they are the cheapest thing to change and the easiest thing to fake. What I am reading on the first pass is the envelope: roof plane and penetrations, stucco and its drainage detail, window flashing, grade and drainage away from the foundation, and where water has obviously gone before.

    A repainted flip is a hypothesis, not a finding.

  2. 02

    Read the build year

    Construction era predicts failure mode, and it is knowable before I walk through the door. Polybutylene supply went in roughly 1978 to 1995. Federal Pacific and Zinsco panels have documented failure modes. Galvanized supply in pre-war Phoenix homes is at the end of its service life. EIFS stucco needs a drainage detail that was frequently omitted. The year built tells me what to look for.

    This is materials science, not intuition.

  3. 03

    Run the four tests

    Before any inspection contingency is released, four things get ordered: a sewer scope, a moisture survey of the building envelope, an HVAC load verification, and an electrical panel identification. A general home inspection is a visual survey by a generalist. It is a starting point, not a finding. These four are where the expensive surprises actually live.

    Roughly $600–$1,200 total. Against a seven-figure purchase.

  4. 04

    Screen the comparables, do not average them

    In Arcadia a 1954 original and a 2023 rebuild trade on the same block. Averaging those produces a number that describes no actual house. Outliers get identified and excluded with a stated reason, not blended away. You will see the reasoning, including the comparables I threw out and why.

    An average of two unlike things describes neither.

  5. 05

    Price the deferred maintenance

    Everything the tests surface becomes a line item with a real number attached, sourced from a contractor rather than estimated from a feeling. Phoenix water chemistry alone — twelve to eighteen grains per gallon depending on zone — is a recurring cost that shortens water heater life and scales every coil and fixture in the house. The absence of treatment is priced into the offer.

    A finding without a dollar figure is not actionable.

  6. 06

    Change one variable at a time

    When a listing is not moving, the common response is to change price, photography, and staging in the same week — and then have no idea which one mattered. That is a ruined experiment. We change one input, hold the rest constant, measure showing-to-offer conversion over a defined interval, and then decide. Slower by a few days. Dramatically better at finding the actual problem.

    Confounded variables produce confident wrong answers.

Stage 03, in detail

The four tests.

Ordered the day a contract is accepted, not on day seven of a ten-day inspection period. Results have to arrive with enough runway that you can actually act on them.

Sewer scope

$150–$300

Camera run from cleanout to main.

Cast iron and clay laterals in pre-1980 Phoenix homes fail at the joints and at root intrusions. A collapsed lateral under a slab is a five-figure repair that no visual inspection finds.

Moisture survey

$200–$400

Meter and thermal imaging across the envelope.

Monsoon intrusion, condensate pans that never fully drain, and irrigation run against a stem wall create exactly the warm, damp, undisturbed conditions that grow things. Mapped before an offer, not discovered after.

HVAC load verification

$100–$250

Confirm capacity against the actual conditioned square footage.

Undersized systems are common after additions and get sold as 'runs a little long in summer.' In Phoenix that is not a quirk, it is a replacement on a clock.

Panel identification

No added cost

Identify the manufacturer and model of the service panel — ask your inspector to photograph the label and the interior.

Federal Pacific Stab-Lok and Zinsco panels carry documented breaker failure modes. Many insurers will not write a policy on them, which makes it a financing problem as well as a safety one.

Roughly $600 to $1,200 in total, against a seven-figure purchase. A clean result is not a wasted test — it is a purchased certainty on the largest contract you will sign.

Five rules I do not bend.

Test, do not assume. Especially on a flip.

A repainted Arcadia flip is a hypothesis, not a finding. I order four things before we release the inspection contingency: a sewer scope, a moisture survey of the envelope, an HVAC load verification, and a panel identification. Cosmetic work is easy to see. The expensive failures are always behind drywall, and thirty years of laboratory work taught me that the untested assumption is the one that costs you.

Water chemistry is a line item, not a detail.

Phoenix municipal water runs hard, roughly twelve to eighteen grains per gallon depending on your zone. That mineral load shortens water heater life, scales fixtures and coils, and quietly raises your maintenance budget for as long as you own the house. I check for treatment at every showing and price its absence into the offer, because adding it later is real money.

Microbial risk lives in the building envelope.

Monsoon intrusion, an HVAC condensate pan that never fully drains, an irrigation line run against a stem wall. These create exactly the warm, damp, undisturbed conditions I spent three decades culturing on purpose. On older homes with crawlspaces I moisture-map before we write. It is inexpensive, it is fast, and it is the difference between buying a house and buying a remediation project.

The build year tells you what will fail.

This is materials science and it is knowable. Polybutylene supply lines went in between roughly 1978 and 1995. Federal Pacific and Zinsco panels carry documented failure modes. Galvanized supply in pre-war Phoenix homes is at the end of its service life. EIFS stucco needs a drainage detail that was frequently omitted. I read the year built and know what to look for before I walk through the door.

Change one variable at a time.

When a listing is not moving, most agents change price, photography, and staging in the same week, then have no idea which one mattered. That is a ruined experiment. We change one input, hold the rest constant, measure showing-to-offer conversion over a defined interval, and then decide. Slower by a few days, and dramatically better at finding the actual problem.

This is the whole thing. Hold me to it.

The protocol is published before you hire me so that you can check whether I actually ran it. That is the point of writing it down.